Scotland stands at the cusp of a generational opportunity - to become a global leader in green hydrogen. But that ambition is tethered to the success of ScotWind.  

If ScotWind stumbles, so too does Scotland’s hydrogen future – and with it, an economic and environmental prize of enormous scale.

The vision for Scotland is clear, and hugely exciting. Offshore wind provides the clean electricity that enables large-scale green hydrogen production. This hydrogen can decarbonise heavy industry, fuel transport, and, crucially, become a major export commodity.  

But if ScotWind does not go ahead as planned – due to regulatory roadblocks, investment hesitancy, or a policy mis-step by either of our governments – than the entire hydrogen opportunity begins to unravel.  

Without abundant offshore wind power, Scotland’s ability to produce competitive green hydrogen is severely undermined. The knock-on effects are profound. Supply chains stall, infrastructure investment dries up, and international markets look elsewhere.

One of the most pressing threats to ScotWind’s viability is the current suggestion that the UK Government is exploring a move to zonal pricing for electricity.  

Currently, the UK operates under a national pricing model, meaning electricity generators in Scotland receive the same wholesale price as those in England.  

However, under a zonal pricing system, the price of electricity would vary by region, and Scottish generators – particularly offshore wind developers – could face significantly lower revenues due to their geographical location.  

This would make Scottish projects less competitive and, in turn, jeopardise the entire ScotWind rollout. Those are not my words, this is what some very big players in offshore wind are saying.

The implications of this change cannot be overstated. If offshore wind developers cannot secure viable revenues, projects may be delayed or even scrapped.  

The result? Scotland’s hydrogen ambition is slowed down at the starting line. Without large-scale offshore wind power at commercially viable rates, the production of affordable green hydrogen is impacted.  

And if Scotland fails to develop its hydrogen economy fast enough, it will cede ground to other nations that are moving quickly to secure their place in the global energy transition.  

The Scottish Government would also be left with an enormous hole in its energy strategy, which essentially has hydrogen export revenues replacing oil and gas in the coming decades.

Europe, meanwhile, is racing ahead with hydrogen. Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain are moving at pace to secure supply, forge trade agreements, and invest in green infrastructure. If Scotland fails to deliver on its promise, others will fill the void. And when Scotland finally does get its act together, it may find the market already locked up.

The economic consequences of this would be severe. Hydrogen presents a multi-billion-pound export opportunity for Scotland, with the potential to supply industrial hubs across Europe and beyond.  

Missing out on this could cost thousands of jobs, deter foreign investment, and weaken Scotland’s broader energy industry.  

Beyond economic loss, the climate imperative is stark. Green hydrogen is a cornerstone of net-zero strategies. Without it, hard-to-abate sectors remain fossil-fuel dependent, and Scotland’s 2045 climate targets become increasingly difficult to achieve.  

Offshore wind and hydrogen are intrinsically linked, and dismantling the former through zonal pricing would impact the pace and scalability of the latter.

The message to policymakers is simple, ScotWind isn’t just about offshore wind – it’s about securing Scotland’s place in the global energy transition.  

The move to zonal pricing risks undercutting one of the most ambitious renewable energy strategies in Europe. If we get this right, Scotland will export not just hydrogen, but leadership. If we get it wrong, the opportunity will be lost to more agile competitors.

To maintain momentum in the energy transition and secure Scotland’s future as a hydrogen powerhouse, policymakers must ensure that ScotWind remains economically viable.  

Otherwise, we risk squandering one of the greatest economic and environmental opportunities of our time.